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The Wild Horse and Burro BLM Provides Evidence of Highly Questionable Population Estimates Again

11 May

… But Worse

 Inflated Numbers, Vanishing Herds: The Data Crisis in America’s Wild Horse Program

Kathleen Gregg and Michele Anderson, Environmental Researchers
May 10, 2025

Wild Horse Photo by Leslie Sterling

Again, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) annual population data exposes questionable inconsistencies including:

#1 Thousands of missing wild horses and burros from their legal home ranges

#2 Biologically impossible population increases

#3 Zeroing out and/or robbing the wild horses and burros from legally designated lands

Ten years ago, we started closely following the BLM’s annual published wild horse and burro population estimates; and have this data back even to 2005. What was found each and every year tells a troubling and often unbelievable story: population growth rates that defy biology and data that suggests the disappearances of thousands of wild horses and burros with no explanation. While the BLM claims to act in the animals’ best interest, its own records suggest a different narrative—one where numbers are manipulated, transparency is lacking, and the fate of thousands of wild horses and burros remains unknown.

Examples Below:

FORT SAGE Herd Management Area (HMA). BLM shows a 65% decrease in ONE year. During that one-year period, BLM reported no legal environmental assessment (EA) for any roundup of horses on this HMA and no legal roundup since September 1998. And yet the Fort Sage HMA is MISSING 283 of our wild horses this past year without any legally required notice (EA) to the public. These are our horses by congressional law and were SUPPOSED to be under the BLM’s protection.

FLANIGAN Herd Management Area (HMA). BLM shows a 59% decrease in ONE year. During that one-year period, BLM reported no legal environmental assessment (EA) for any roundup of horses on this HMA and no legal roundup since annuary 2012. And yet the Flannigan HMA is MISSING 337 of our wild horses this past year without any legally required notice (EA) to the public. These are our horses by congressional law and were SUPPOSED to be under the BLM’s protection.

MONTGOMERY PASS Herd Management Area (HMA). BLM shows a 90% decrease in ONE year. Although a massive capture was planned for May of 2025, during that one-year period of March 2024 to March 2025, BLM reported no legal environmental assessment (EA) for any roundup of horses on this HMA and no legal roundup since September 1998. And yet the Montgomery Pass HMA is MISSING 666 of our wild horses this past year without any legally required notice (EA) to the public. These are our horses by congressional law and were SUPPOSED to be under the BLM’s protection.

BEATYS BUTTE Herd Management Area (HMA). BLM shows a 35% decrease in ONE year. During that one-year period, BLM reported no legal environmental assessment (EA) for any roundup of horses on this HMA and no legal roundup since June 2016. And yet the Fort Sage HMA is MISSING 232 of our wild horses this past year without any legally required notice (EA) to the public. These are our horses by congressional law and were SUPPOSED to be under the BLM’s protection.

CHEMEHUEVI Herd Management Area (HMA). BLM shows a 46% decrease in ONE year. During that one-year period, BLM reported no legal environmental assessment (EA) for any roundup of burros on this HMA and no legal roundup since August 2018. And yet the Chemehuevi HMA was MISSING 634 of our wild burros in 2020 without any legally required notice (EA) to the public. These are our burros by congressional law and were SUPPOSED to be under the BLM’s protection.

BIG SANDY Herd Management Area (HMA). BLM shows an 83% decrease in ONE year. During that one-year period, BLM reported no legal environmental assessment (EA) for any roundup of burros on this HMA and no legal roundup since August 2020. And yet the Big Sandy HMA was MISSING 1896 of our wild burros in 2023 without any legally required notice (EA) to the public. These are our burros by congressional law and were SUPPOSED to be under the BLM’s protection.

KIGER Herd Management Area (HMA) BLM shows a 140% increase in ONE year. This would require the herd of 224 horses to produce 314 successful foals in one year, meaning every single horse – including the stallions – have more than one surviving foal in one year. Biologically impossible

CIBOLA-TRIGO Herd Management Area (HMA) BLM shows a 699% increase in ONE year. This would require the herd of 279 burros to produce 1951 successful foals in one year, meaning every single burro – including the jacks – have more than six surviving foals in one year. Biologically impossible

CENTENNIAL Herd Management Area (HMA) BLM shows a 666% increase in ONE year. This would require the herd of 56 burros to produce 373 successful foals in one year, meaning every single burro – including the jacks – have more than six surviving foals in one year. Biologically impossible

BULLFROG Herd Management Area (HMA) BLM shows a 367% increase in ONE year. This would require the herd of 250 burros to produce 917 successful foals in one year, meaning every single burro – including the jacks – have more than three surviving foals in one year. Biologically impossible

FOUR MILE Herd Management Area (HMA) BLM shows capturing 162 wild horses in 2021/22 followed by zeroing out the entire herd in 2024 due to fire although the Appropriate Management Area (AML) is still 37-60 and none have been returned to their legal land.

DIVIDE BASIN and SALT WELLS Herd Management Areas (HMAs) are being changed to Herd Areas (HAs) by BLM. Changing the designation from HMA to HA will allow the BLM to zero out all the wild horses. Furthermore, the captured and removed 2,485 wild horses will lose their legal protection as provided and stated in the 1971 Wild Horse and Burro Act.

STONEWALL Herd Management Area (HMA), NV. BLM shows 95 wild burros in March 2023 but then a year later March 2024 ALL burros were missing but the public was not notified and no legally required environmental assessment (EA) for capture was done by BLM resulting in zero burros on their legally land.

Legalities and Analysis:

Since 1971, the Wild Horse and Burro Act provides for the legal protection for these wild animals on specific acres of public lands. Because population estimates drive nearly all management decisions pertaining to wild horses and burros, accuracy is important. The National Academy of Science (NAS) report cited two chief criticisms of the Wild Horse and Burro Program: unsubstantiated population estimates in herd management areas (HMA), and management decisions that are not based in science (NAS, 2013). 

The annual population statistics published by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), which have been the subject of public alarm, were officially reported on two separate occasions in recent years to the United States Office of the Inspector General (OIG). According to the office’s own guidelines, individuals with knowledge of fraud, waste, abuse, misconduct, or mismanagement involving the U.S. Department of the Interior are encouraged to contact the Office of Inspector General, yet in both instances, the Department declined to initiate an investigation and did not provide any explanation or justification for its decision.

The discovery of these questionable tactics by BLM raises serious issues regarding transparency and accountability. As demonstrated in the examples above, the data inconsistencies appear to have occurred over an extended period, suggesting a pattern that goes beyond isolated clerical errors.

Certain BLM statements presented regarding population increases and decreases appear to be inconsistent with available data, potentially leading to misunderstandings by Congress and the public. These discrepancies may raise concerns under federal statute Title 18 (18 U.S.C. § 1001), which addresses the prohibition against making false or fraudulent statements in matters within the jurisdiction of the federal government.

Specifically, 18 U.S. Code § 1001 outlines that knowingly and willfully falsifying, concealing, or covering up material facts, or making materially false statements in any matter within the jurisdiction of the executive, legislative, or judicial branches of the U.S. government, is a federal offense punishable by fines or imprisonment of up to five years. Additionally, such conduct may be at odds with the standards set forth in Executive Order 12674 on ethical behavior, which emphasizes the importance of integrity and public confidence in the actions of all federal employees.

Conclusion:

WHY is this evidence of BLM fraud so important? Because these deceitful statistics and maneuvers are provided by BLM to the public and delivered to Congress when BLM is requesting funding for wild horse and burro capture and management plans.

The discovery of

#1 Thousands of missing wild horses and burros from their legal home ranges

#2 Biologically impossible population increases

#3 Zeroing out and/or robbing the wild horses and burros from legally designated lands requires serious investigation.

We all need to voice our concerns by contacting the BLM and OIG. We must also continue to share this BLM dishonesty with our Senators and Representatives and the media and your friends – spread the word.

References:

2025 Wild Horse and Burro Population Estimates (blm.gov) https://app.box.com/s/n4anbas6y43ugb1rr5skComplaints & Requests | Office of Inspector General, U.S. Department of the Interior (doioig.gov)

 
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Posted by on May 11, 2025 in Uncategorized

 

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You, Me, And Other Things of Importance Over the Fence Post — A Conversation

24 Mar

A Chat by John W.Cox, M.A. C/M

“Just sitting here in the woods, keeping an eye on the horses grazing. It reminds me of realizing how important the science of observation is for us, as horse advocates. But the observation, as Jane Goodall states clearly, is only as good as the truth, which ultimately benefits the knowledge we have of what we see.

In another words, interpretation is the ultimate desire of science and the data we interpret. Experience tells us what to look for. Knowledge and decades of experience together, tells us how to interpret the actual dynamics of the information. It allows us to acknowledge what we are seeing, or reference it, correctly. The fact is, a wrong interpretation, or, a little askew, and we have false information. We have errors that may become extreme, if we have the inability to resolve an issue that could have been easily resolved, or not even developed to require a resolution, had we had the correct information to begin with.

A good example of this is the repetition we hear so often, the Wild Horses being non-indigenous. The negative side of this is the fact this information is repeated, without qualification, always. Never referenced with evidence.

We now find explanation within science, in the research of something as simple as dirt (I keep the terminology simple here, as we do not need the scientific term of fauna and other micro biology terms). Because we need to understand this, in order to correct this situation.

For Example: Current research in the Yukon, and the DNA involved, tells us during the Ice Age, the Wild Horses, as well as Bison, and other animals, we assumed went extinct, could, and did survive, as they had food sources in areas we all assumed food sources frozen or iced over.

This confirmed also, some territories throughout the Pleistocene were tropical zones. This led to more food sources available for the Wild Horses and other grazing animals, like the Wholly Mammoth, or the Pygmy Mammoth. All grazers, and all survived the Pleistocene.

What we have today, are inexperienced people, who say they have a lot of experience, but, simply do not. This is not a harmless situation. A few lies, combined with a few non-knowledgeable interpretations of science, or lack of experience and bad interpretation of what we see, and we find the science-management that decisions are made “from” to be flawed.

In another words, the decisions, for proper management of Wild Horses for example, faulty from the very start. We can see in the matters of the Wild Horses, this situation can mean death — by slaughter and used as meat products.

The fact is, when we see someone discuss 10 or 16 years of experience, and we know for a fact that is a lie, then state they are observing Wild Horses daily; yet, they are domestics from auctions, or bred domestics from ranchers, we then have to acknowledge bad-reference material will enter the science-management system — or nonfactual information about Wild Horses or wolves — as supposed good reference material, in the future. And it will be used to manage Wild Horses, for example, on the range, or in the mountains. Wild Horses will die.

This is why we need to start discussing more so, these supposed people that call themselves Wild Horse Experts. When indeed, they are making an already bad system, much worse (e.g. the system already filled with misinformation and outright lies), with more faulty and erroneous science (i.e. as explained above). Too much misinformation in this system, already leads to mass-confusion at times. Then debates on who is wrong and who is right follow — then nothing for the Wild Horses happen, within a positive manner and process.

Many of the articles I read, and others who check it also, closely, find misinformation abundant, and reference materials in error. Often we find the reference materials some people use in their articles or white papers, to be flawed, and simply non-qualified as a reference to the papers subject matter. Or, the reference not interpreted correctly — and this happens a lot, we see it many times, in many papers.

This faulty science I speak of here, will eventually turn into reference material used in research and scientific papers, more than likely. The consequences serious, and we will have yet more false interpretation on how Wild Horses should be managed. The results of this — total failure.” — John Cox, M.A. C/M

 
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Posted by on March 24, 2025 in Uncategorized

 

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